This assessment is reflected in the steadily declining number of active cases. India’s active caseload dropped to 5,012 on Sunday, down from 5,976 on Friday, according to official data. Two new deaths were recorded in the last 24 hours, taking the total fatalities this year to 112.
Scientists attribute the decline to high population immunity and the continuing mildness of the virus. The current spread is largely driven by Omicron sub-variants NB.1.8.1 and LF.7, which have so far remained less virulent.
“When transmission efficiency increases, the peak comes faster and the decline is also faster,” said Dr Raman Gangakhedkar, national chair at the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and former head scientist at the agency. “Covid-19 has become endemic in India. The concerning part is that we don’t want new infections, but the good news is that new variants over the last three years have remained mild or milder.”
He also noted that many infections now go undetected but still contribute to building antibody responses in the population, a natural form of immunization that limits severe illness.
The testing levels have declined, and comprehensive data on current infections remains limited.
“Presently, there is no very good record of the number of tests being done, and it needs to be done scientifically. But there are no significant adverse clinical symptoms to be concerned about,” one senior DBT scientist said.
Dr Rajeev Jayadevan, public health expert and past president of the Indian Medical Association (IMA), Cochin, said that Covid-19 is now behaving like a cyclical disease, with temporary immunity leading to periodic rises in cases. “As the level of immunity in the population drops, the virus is able to infect more people and cases will naturally rise. However, due to past vaccination and exposure to the virus earlier, immune memory protects against severe disease and death,” he said. Vulnerable individuals, he added, should remain cautious, especially during periods of surge.
Jayadevan also pointed out that SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve in response to the human immune system, leading to recurring infection cycles roughly every 6 to 12 months. “The reported number of cases is always an underestimate because of limited testing,” he said. Influenza, which is also circulating, remains a significant contributor to disease burden, he added.
Earlier, Mint reported that a spike in cases during April was driven by the JN.1.16 sub-variant of Omicron. In May, most cases were linked to recombinant sub-lineages such as LF.7 and LP.8.1.2. As per government guidelines, all hospitalized Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI) patients and 5% of Influenza Like Illness (ILI) cases continue to be tested for Covid-19. Positive SARI samples are routinely sent for genome sequencing.
Also read | Covid-19 resurgence: What is JN.1 variant of coronavirus? What are the symptoms? Everything you should know
The health ministry reported 1,197 recoveries in the past 24 hours, bringing total recoveries this year to 19,435. Authorities continue to advise precautions, including avoiding crowded places when unwell and following Covid-appropriate behaviour.
“In hospitals too, patient load has come down and most cases are now manageable at home,” said Dr Vikas Maurya, head of the respiratory department at Fortis Hospital, Shalimar Bagh.
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